Figures of employment in the United States and recession

Publié le par Jean-Pierre Chevallier


The figures of employment just published are misleading: they show a total increase in employment in September which occults the recession.
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Indeed, 126,700 jobs were created in September (and also in August) in certain seasonal sectors like:

  • accommodations and food services (+ 35,900 to 11,652 million),
  • education (+ 27,000 in the State government to 2,352 million and + 18,800 in local government to 8,062 million)
  • in marginal sectors not subjected to competition like health and… social assistance (+ 45,000 to 15,490 million)…

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In the business, 97,600 employment was removed in:

  • employment services (- 34,900 to 3,471 million),
  • manufacturing (- 18,000 to 13,983 million),
  • trade for the house (- 16,700 to 1,290 million),
  • construction (- 14,000 to 7,613 million),

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USCONS/chart?cid=11&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Medium&crb=on&cf=pc1&range=5yrs&cosd=2003-01-01&coed=2007-09-01&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E

  • financial (- 14,000 to 8,448 million).

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USFIRE/chart?cid=11&fgid=&fgcid=&ct=&pt=&cs=Medium&crb=on&cf=pc1&range=5yrs&cosd=2003-01-01&coed=2007-09-01&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E

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Only some marginal sectors engaged:

  • 10,000 jobs were created in accountancy (to 966,000) and
  • 9,700 in management (to 1,011 million)!

It is little.

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The markets are mistaken by thinking that all is well!
I maintain my analyses: the recession is perhaps already there.

In any case, the growth of the GDP is very weak.
The announced collapse will occur.
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Evolution of jobs creations: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071005US6EMPM.gif

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The creations of jobs were weak during the Bush years and strong during the Clinton years, while waiting for the next ones…

http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071005US7EMPBC.gif

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The release of Commerce Department, September: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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