The figures of employment just published are misleading: they show a total increase in employment in September which occults the recession.
Indeed, 126,700 jobs were created in September (and also in August) in certain seasonal sectors like:
- accommodations and food services (+ 35,900 to 11,652 million),
- education (+ 27,000 in the State government to 2,352 million and + 18,800 in local government to 8,062 million)
- in marginal sectors not subjected to competition like health and… social assistance (+ 45,000 to 15,490 million)…
In the business, 97,600 employment was removed in:
- employment services (- 34,900 to 3,471 million),
- manufacturing (- 18,000 to 13,983 million),
- trade for the house (- 16,700 to 1,290 million),
- construction (- 14,000 to 7,613 million),
- financial (- 14,000 to 8,448 million).
Only some marginal sectors engaged:
- 10,000 jobs were created in accountancy (to 966,000) and
- 9,700 in management (to 1,011 million)!
It is little.
The markets are mistaken by thinking that all is well!
I maintain my analyses: the recession is perhaps already there.
In any case, the growth of the GDP is very weak.
The announced collapse will occur.
Evolution of jobs creations: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071005US6EMPM.gif
The creations of jobs were weak during the Bush years and strong during the Clinton years, while waiting for the next ones…
The release of Commerce Department, September: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm