Productivity and growth

Publié le par Jean-Pierre Chevallier

Productivity and growth


American companies increase their sales (GDP increases normally at 3.5%), but they do not create jobs.

Overall they have even removed 17,000 in January including over 50,000 in the manufacturing sector.

Productivity gains are now very high in the United States, as in August 2003 when 48,000 jobs cut.

Productivity gains peaked at 4.8% (in the 6 first months 2003) before recovery with real GDP growth in excess of 4% in the 6 first months 2004,
Chart:
2008.02.01.US.PVT.gif
(Click here to enlarge the graph)

Productivity gains were weak since 2004, but they are rebounding and tend to their historical average of 2.5% resulting in GDP growth.

The reversal of the growth takes place now as in 2003. Everyone fears a worsening economic situation while the recovery is very strong.

We can detect these reversals of major trends only by careful observation of changes in monetary aggregates.

The turnovers and especially corporate profits and their stocks will rise.

Knowledge of the economy is fuelling winning speculation …

Neither government plan nor lower rates by the Fed would be justified: the markets are picking up for themselves.

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