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  • Monetary Aggregates, still

    10 décembre 2007

    Monetary Aggregates, still Once again, the change in monetary aggregates is the best indicator of the present and future economic situation. M2-M1 grew increasingly until March 2007: Americans increased their savings because they felt that their situation...

  • Back to normal

    04 janvier 2008

    Back to normal The latest figures released by the Fed on January 3 confirm the previous trend: the increase in savings of Americans (M2-M1)… decreased during the first 4 weeks of December. The increase in M2-M1 tends to 7.5%, meaning that Americans have...

  • Americans well react!

    11 janvier 2008

    Americans well react! Americans well react: on December 31, they decreased their savings compared to the previous week of $ 4.8 billion to spend more. M2-M1 decreased, the increase in M2-M1 (year-on-year)… decreased below 7%. Chart 1: ( Click here to...

  • Americans very well react!

    18 janvier 2008

    Americans very well react! Americans very well react, better than fund managers as evidenced by the evolution of monetary aggregates figures on Jan. 7. Indeed, Americans increased less savings because their economic situation is good and they anticipate...

  • Growth and American free money supply

    25 janvier 2008

    Growth and American free money supply USA are not in recession! The careful observation of changes in monetary aggregates, in particular M2-M1 since 2005 shows that real GDP growth returns in its average of 3.5% (from one year to another), Chart 1: (Click...

  • Americans continue to well react!

    25 janvier 2008

    Americans continue to well react! Americans continue to well react, as demonstrated by the developments in monetary aggregates figures on January, 14: they increase less savings because their economic situation is good and they anticipate an improvement....

  • Free money supply and growth

    28 janvier 2008

    Free money supply and growth Part 1: M3 free money supply The variation of the real GDP growth rate is inversely proportional to that of the free money supply which is the difference between the increase of M3, the money supply in current data and (less)...

  • American growth at 2.5%!

    30 janvier 2008

    American growth at 2.5%! The rate of real GDP growth in fourth quarter 2007 was at 2.5% year on year, exactly in line with what I predicted under my law on free money supply: the free real GDP growth varies with the inverse of the variance of the free...

  • Confirmation of my analyses…

    01 février 2008

    Confirmation of my analyses… The latest figures released by the Fed on January, 31 (and those of the GDP growth) confirm my previous analyses: the increase in the aggregate M2-M1 is slightly less than 7% (from one year to another) on January 21, which...

  • Productivity and growth

    01 février 2008

    Productivity and growth American companies increase their sales (GDP increases normally at 3.5%), but they do not create jobs. Overall they have even removed 17,000 in January including over 50,000 in the manufacturing sector. Productivity gains are now...

  • Reversal of trend?

    08 février 2008

    Reversal of trend? Americans increased their savings to $ 47.4 billion in the week ending January 28, which is significant because an increase of this magnitude occurred only once previously in history: in the week after September 11, 2001 with $ 51 billion,...

  • Bad

    15 février 2008

    Bad The latest figures published yesterday by the Fed are bad: M2-M1 rose by 8% (year o year) since 2 weeks, Chart 1: (Click here to enlarge the graph) The stocks market collapse, which was amplified during the week on January, 21 (with Société Générale)...

  • The age of turbulence

    22 février 2008

    The age of turbulence The latest figures yesterday published by the Fed are worse than those of the previous week: Americans increased their savings of $ 40 billion compared with the previous week, and especially to $ 127 billion over the last 4 weeks...

  • B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift!

    28 décembre 2008

    B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift! B-2 (the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit, also known as the Stealth Bomber ), Ben Bernanke , offered a really nice Christmas gift to the Americans and the world! Indeed, yields Notes reached their low point on 17 and December...

  • Structure of rates and optimal growth

    11 août 2007

    The GDP growth reaches its optimal potential when core inflation is contained in the band from 1.0 to 1.5% with real 10-year yield which fluctuates between 2 and 3% corresponding to a placement without risk. Under these conditions, the 10-year should...

  • Collapse, globalization, growth, markets and rates

    11 août 2007

    I predicted for several months a stock exchange collapse which currently occurs but my blog on "Turgot Institute" was removed at the end of July without my agreement! Small reminder of main points… The members of the FOMC raised their target on a too...

  • Self-regulation of markets and rates

    12 août 2007

    The profit of American companies increased (year-on-year) approximately by 10% for 20 quarters, which is higher than the standard (5 to 7%). The stock prices increase logically, but less quickly: the average PER of SP500 is at 16.9 what corresponds to...

  • Growth in the second quarter and free money supply

    13 août 2007

    The GDP growth in the United States in the second quarter was much stronger than I predicted it: + 3.4% (from a quarter to another in annualized rate) instead zero growth, but only 1.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the optimal potential (3.5%). I...

  • Strange monetary policy of the central banks

    15 août 2007

    Some central banks (Fed, ECB, Japan, Switzerland, etc.) recently injected cash on the markets. This monetary policy is strange because it is against the usual practices. Indeed, the monetary policy of the central banks always consisted in intervening...

  • August 15 and economic culture

    16 août 2007

    On August 15, everyone is on holiday, or almost. On August 15, it does not occur anything, or almost. * On August 15, 1971 Richard Nixon decided to remove the free convertibility of the dollar in gold. For the first time in the history of humanity, the...

  • Financial TAFTA, Trans Atlantic Free Trade Agreement

    29 août 2007

    A new TAFTA, T rans A tlantic F ree T rade A greement is being born, at least concerning the financial markets. Indeed, American and Europeans rates converge: the 2-year yield in euro zone was yesterday Tuesday August 28 at 4.02% and that of United States...

  • Bernanke versus Greenspan: 0-1

    31 août 2007

    Monetary aggregate M2-M1 increased by $49.7 billion during the week finishing on August 20. M2-M1 only once increased as much: $51.1 billion after the September 11 (at September 19, 2001). This very important increase means that Americans save much because...

  • Bernanke versus Greenspan: 0 - 2

    03 septembre 2007

    In the match which opposes Bernanke to Greenspan, there is not 1 to 0, but Greenspan wins at least by 2 points versus zero! Indeed, since Ben Bernanke chairs the Fed, the weekly variations of M2-M1 are much more important than before. In Greenspan’s time,...

  • Errors of the Fed and irrationality of the markets

    07 septembre 2007

    M2-M1 further increased by $49,7 billion in the week finishing on August 27, exactly like the previous week, which never occurred in the History of the United States! * After the attacks of September 11, M2-M1 increased by $50 billion, but all is become...

  • The recession of Ben Bernanke!

    07 septembre 2007

    Ben Bernanke and his boys thus succeeded in creating a recession whereas the growth could have normally continued! He joined on the black list Wm. McC. Martin, Jr who directed the Fed in the Sixties and who made the fatal error to let leave an inflation...

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