Top articles
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The recession of Ben Bernanke!
Ben Bernanke and his boys thus succeeded in creating a recession whereas the growth could have normally continued! He joined on the black list Wm. McC. Martin, Jr who directed the Fed in the Sixties and who made the fatal error to let leave an inflation...
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Forecasts and variations of the monetary aggregates
Forecasts and variations of the monetary aggregates The variations of monetary aggregates are the best indicators for forecasts because they very well synthesize the reactions of the markets. On September 3, M2-M1 (much) increased by year-on-year: +8.3%....
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Recessions in sight!
Americans continue to increase their saving: M2-M1 increased at September 27 by 8.74% compared to the previous year, Graph 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071005US1M2M1FED.gif * They increase their saving because they anticipate...
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August 15 and economic culture
On August 15, everyone is on holiday, or almost. On August 15, it does not occur anything, or almost. * On August 15, 1971 Richard Nixon decided to remove the free convertibility of the dollar in gold. For the first time in the history of humanity, the...
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Save and target of the Fed
M2-M1 continuous to increase at 8.64% (year-on-year) from September 10 to 17, which means that Americans increase their saving by decreasing their consumption. Graph 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20070928US1M2M1.gif * As demand drops,...
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Growth increasingly low
Growth increasingly low Real GDP growth is increasingly weak in the United States as evidenced by the latest figures of monetary aggregates (on Oct. 25). M2-M1 continues to grow in its long trend, Figure 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071026US1M2M1.gif...
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Calm and Storm
Calm and Storm Americans work: unemployment rate is low at 4.7%. They make money, spend and save. Everything is fine. Their real wages do not increase, allowing contain core inflation below 2% but requires them to restrict their consumption. The demand...
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Errors of the Fed and irrationality of the markets
M2-M1 further increased by $49,7 billion in the week finishing on August 27, exactly like the previous week, which never occurred in the History of the United States! * After the attacks of September 11, M2-M1 increased by $50 billion, but all is become...
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Self-regulation of markets and rates
The profit of American companies increased (year-on-year) approximately by 10% for 20 quarters, which is higher than the standard (5 to 7%). The stock prices increase logically, but less quickly: the average PER of SP500 is at 16.9 what corresponds to...
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Structure of rates and optimal growth
The GDP growth reaches its optimal potential when core inflation is contained in the band from 1.0 to 1.5% with real 10-year yield which fluctuates between 2 and 3% corresponding to a placement without risk. Under these conditions, the 10-year should...
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Growth in the second quarter and free money supply
The GDP growth in the United States in the second quarter was much stronger than I predicted it: + 3.4% (from a quarter to another in annualized rate) instead zero growth, but only 1.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the optimal potential (3.5%). I...
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M3 and the American success
M3 and the American success American companies lacked cash until the late 1990s. Indeed, the aggregate M3-M2 totaled cash to less than 20% of GDP, Figure 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071030US1M123.gif Everything changed at the...
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Collapse, globalization, growth, markets and rates
I predicted for several months a stock exchange collapse which currently occurs but my blog on "Turgot Institute" was removed at the end of July without my agreement! Small reminder of main points… The members of the FOMC raised their target on a too...
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Bernanke versus Greenspan: 0 - 2
In the match which opposes Bernanke to Greenspan, there is not 1 to 0, but Greenspan wins at least by 2 points versus zero! Indeed, since Ben Bernanke chairs the Fed, the weekly variations of M2-M1 are much more important than before. In Greenspan’s time,...