B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift!

Publié le par Jean-Pierre Chevallier

B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift!


B-2
(the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit, also known as the Stealth Bomber), Ben Bernanke, offered a really nice Christmas gift to the Americans and the world!


Indeed, yields Notes reached their low point on 17 and December 18 (the 10-year at 2.08% and the 2-year at 0.66%) after the surprise drop rates by the Fed at absolute zero (markets took some time to reflect and to properly interpret this historic decision!)

Figure 1:

Click here to enlarge the chart.


Indeed, these yields are beginning to increase slightly after the FOMC decision, which is the beginning of their upward on a long and strong trend from that point of reversal.


Whew!


The crisis is over! but the recovery is still quite hard because the collateral damages are important!


For now, only the large Treasuries market (Notes) reacts correctly: capitals are still refugees in large numbers on the Bills whose yields are at zero point zero and not much for 100,

Chart 2:

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The Henry Paulson’s decision not to use so the first version of his rescue plan (black spot on the charts) dived the Treasuries, the stocks and so on to complete the creative destruction, which was very effective!

Chart 3:

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The yields of Treasuries will all increase on a long upward trend (with first, the 10-years dating back to 5% as in 2006-2007), which means that capital will leave their shelter to invest in corporate bonds and especially stocks, the equity indices will finally regain their normal level,

Chart 4:

 


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to enlarge the chart.


The crisis is over, in fact it was not a crisis, but just a small slowdown in GDP growth to burst two bubbles and inflation, and then to restart on excellent fundamentals, i.e. with sound money through the reorganization of the financial sector where many people have taken good slapping with investments in risky derivatives.


Hacks and patters will welcome the recovery by attributing to the policy of Barack Obama, who is for nothing in this course!


The spread 10-year less 2-year continues to decrease after reaching a high point as I had already noted above,

Chart 5:


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The US recovery will even transmit to Germany: the spread 10-year Bund less the 2-year Schatz also, after reaching high points (corresponding to a negative growth) will fall (which means that growth will start in Germany)

Chart 6:

 


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to enlarge the chart.


The yield curve is fairly strong in Germany, which signals a recovery,
Chart 7:


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The Club Med countries will still be heavily handicapped by the Euro-system, and the slippage of the monetary supply and their public deficits: the spread between the yields of 10-year Treasury bonds of Italy (4.313%) and Germany (2.936%) still beats yesterday's record on December 22 to 46.9% (at the end of US trading session),

Figure 8:

 


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to enlarge the chart.


With a spread of 16.5% the French 10-year OAT (3.420%) is close to its record,

Chart 9:

 


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to enlarge the chart.


The Club Med countries will not sink, but the disorder will be increased and unsustainable.
The American strategy of disorder is very effective everywhere in the world and particularly in the Middle East and Russia, which is expected to prevent real wars (high-intensity military say).


Gods, that monetarist war is pretty!

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Commenter cet article

dissertation samples 17/08/2009 12:50

Blogs are so informative where we get lots of information on any topic. Nice job keep it up!!