Top articles
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Americans continue to well react!
Americans continue to well react! Americans continue to well react, as demonstrated by the developments in monetary aggregates figures on January, 14: they increase less savings because their economic situation is good and they anticipate an improvement....
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Americans well react!
Americans well react! Americans well react: on December 31, they decreased their savings compared to the previous week of $ 4.8 billion to spend more. M2-M1 decreased, the increase in M2-M1 (year-on-year)… decreased below 7%. Chart 1: ( Click here to...
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Monetary Aggregates, still
Monetary Aggregates, still Once again, the change in monetary aggregates is the best indicator of the present and future economic situation. M2-M1 grew increasingly until March 2007: Americans increased their savings because they felt that their situation...
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Americans very well react!
Americans very well react! Americans very well react, better than fund managers as evidenced by the evolution of monetary aggregates figures on Jan. 7. Indeed, Americans increased less savings because their economic situation is good and they anticipate...
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Back to normal
Back to normal The latest figures released by the Fed on January 3 confirm the previous trend: the increase in savings of Americans (M2-M1)… decreased during the first 4 weeks of December. The increase in M2-M1 tends to 7.5%, meaning that Americans have...
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The age of turbulence
The age of turbulence The latest figures yesterday published by the Fed are worse than those of the previous week: Americans increased their savings of $ 40 billion compared with the previous week, and especially to $ 127 billion over the last 4 weeks...
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Reversal of trend?
Reversal of trend? Americans increased their savings to $ 47.4 billion in the week ending January 28, which is significant because an increase of this magnitude occurred only once previously in history: in the week after September 11, 2001 with $ 51 billion,...
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B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift!
B-2’s beautiful Christmas gift! B-2 (the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit, also known as the Stealth Bomber ), Ben Bernanke , offered a really nice Christmas gift to the Americans and the world! Indeed, yields Notes reached their low point on 17 and December...
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Free money supply and growth
Free money supply and growth Part 1: M3 free money supply The variation of the real GDP growth rate is inversely proportional to that of the free money supply which is the difference between the increase of M3, the money supply in current data and (less)...
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American growth at 2.5%!
American growth at 2.5%! The rate of real GDP growth in fourth quarter 2007 was at 2.5% year on year, exactly in line with what I predicted under my law on free money supply: the free real GDP growth varies with the inverse of the variance of the free...
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Bad
Bad The latest figures published yesterday by the Fed are bad: M2-M1 rose by 8% (year o year) since 2 weeks, Chart 1: (Click here to enlarge the graph) The stocks market collapse, which was amplified during the week on January, 21 (with Société Générale)...
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Growth and American free money supply
Growth and American free money supply USA are not in recession! The careful observation of changes in monetary aggregates, in particular M2-M1 since 2005 shows that real GDP growth returns in its average of 3.5% (from one year to another), Chart 1: (Click...
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Confirmation of my analyses…
Confirmation of my analyses… The latest figures released by the Fed on January, 31 (and those of the GDP growth) confirm my previous analyses: the increase in the aggregate M2-M1 is slightly less than 7% (from one year to another) on January 21, which...
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Productivity and growth
Productivity and growth American companies increase their sales (GDP increases normally at 3.5%), but they do not create jobs. Overall they have even removed 17,000 in January including over 50,000 in the manufacturing sector. Productivity gains are now...
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Strange monetary policy of the central banks
Some central banks (Fed, ECB, Japan, Switzerland, etc.) recently injected cash on the markets. This monetary policy is strange because it is against the usual practices. Indeed, the monetary policy of the central banks always consisted in intervening...
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Globalization balances
Globalization balances Once again, good old Alan Greenspan is right: the balances must be considered and implemented now at the level of nations and financial institutions taking into account the global balances, which is a little trickier than the time...
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Inflation becomes again normal
Inflation becomes again normal in the United States: the PCE-PILFE returned in the standards, well installed under the bar of 2%. Graph 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20070928US3PCE01.gif The PCE-PILFE of August increased by 1.76%...
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3. Free supply money and behaviorism
Free supply money and growth: III III. Free supply money and behaviorism To understand the relations between the free money supply and the GDP growth, it is necessary to understand with what actually correspond, concretely, the variations of the monetary...
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Retirements, euro, bubble and crisis
Retirements, euro, bubble and crisis In France, pension liabilities are not accounted by companies or by the state. These debts amounted overall to €4,500 billion or 3 times the GDP at the end of 2004! The unearned money circulates in France and in other...
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Figures of employment in the United States and recession
The figures of employment just published are misleading: they show a total increase in employment in September which occults the recession. * Indeed, 126,700 jobs were created in September (and also in August) in certain seasonal sectors like: accommodations...
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1. Free supply money and growth
Free supply money and growth: I I. M3 free supply money The variation of the real GDP growth rate is inversely proportional to that of the free money supply which is the difference between the increase of the money supply M3 in current data and (less)...
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Bernanke versus Greenspan: 0-1
Monetary aggregate M2-M1 increased by $49.7 billion during the week finishing on August 20. M2-M1 only once increased as much: $51.1 billion after the September 11 (at September 19, 2001). This very important increase means that Americans save much because...
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Financial TAFTA, Trans Atlantic Free Trade Agreement
A new TAFTA, T rans A tlantic F ree T rade A greement is being born, at least concerning the financial markets. Indeed, American and Europeans rates converge: the 2-year yield in euro zone was yesterday Tuesday August 28 at 4.02% and that of United States...
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Bernanke versus Greenspan: 0 - 2
In the match which opposes Bernanke to Greenspan, there is not 1 to 0, but Greenspan wins at least by 2 points versus zero! Indeed, since Ben Bernanke chairs the Fed, the weekly variations of M2-M1 are much more important than before. In Greenspan’s time,...
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Collapse, globalization, growth, markets and rates
I predicted for several months a stock exchange collapse which currently occurs but my blog on "Turgot Institute" was removed at the end of July without my agreement! Small reminder of main points… The members of the FOMC raised their target on a too...