Jean-Pierre Chevallier, business economist

Growth and American free money supply USA are not in recession! The careful observation of changes in monetary aggregates, in particular M2-M1 since 2005 shows that real GDP growth returns in its average of 3.5% (from one year to another), Chart 1: (Click...

Americans very well react! Americans very well react, better than fund managers as evidenced by the evolution of monetary aggregates figures on Jan. 7. Indeed, Americans increased less savings because their economic situation is good and they anticipate...

Americans well react! Americans well react: on December 31, they decreased their savings compared to the previous week of $ 4.8 billion to spend more. M2-M1 decreased, the increase in M2-M1 (year-on-year)… decreased below 7%. Chart 1: ( Click here to...

Back to normal The latest figures released by the Fed on January 3 confirm the previous trend: the increase in savings of Americans (M2-M1)… decreased during the first 4 weeks of December. The increase in M2-M1 tends to 7.5%, meaning that Americans have...

Monetary Aggregates, still Once again, the change in monetary aggregates is the best indicator of the present and future economic situation. M2-M1 grew increasingly until March 2007: Americans increased their savings because they felt that their situation...

Retirements, euro, bubble and crisis In France, pension liabilities are not accounted by companies or by the state. These debts amounted overall to €4,500 billion or 3 times the GDP at the end of 2004! The unearned money circulates in France and in other...

Calm and Storm Americans work: unemployment rate is low at 4.7%. They make money, spend and save. Everything is fine. Their real wages do not increase, allowing contain core inflation below 2% but requires them to restrict their consumption. The demand...

M3 and the American success American companies lacked cash until the late 1990s. Indeed, the aggregate M3-M2 totaled cash to less than 20% of GDP, Figure 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071030US1M123.gif Everything changed at the...

Growth increasingly low Real GDP growth is increasingly weak in the United States as evidenced by the latest figures of monetary aggregates (on Oct. 25). M2-M1 continues to grow in its long trend, Figure 1: http://s3.archive-host.com/membres/up/2107676425/20071026US1M2M1.gif...

The figures of employment just published are misleading: they show a total increase in employment in September which occults the recession. * Indeed, 126,700 jobs were created in September (and also in August) in certain seasonal sectors like: accommodations...